In a country in which people only want boys, every family continues to have children until they have a boy. if they have a girl, they have another child. if they have a boy, they stop. what is the proportion of boys to girls in the country?
Solution:
50:50.
probability of a boy/girl is always 2 irrespective of the number of conditions.
for the above problem we can prove it with simple probability theory.
Lets assume P(b) be the probability of having a boy. P(g) be the probability of having a girl.
Total expectation of a boy is equal to (probability of having a boy at first instance + probability of having a girl then a boy + probability of having 2 girls followd by a boy + etc... )
E(b) = 1/2 + 1/2*1/2 + 1/2*1/2*1/2 + ......
it comes down to 1 ( infinite series sum = a/1-r = 1/2/1-1/2 = 1).
E(g) = 0 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8....
it comes down to 1.
It means there are equal number of girls and boys in the village.
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Thursday, November 22, 2007
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